Carsten A. HOLZ
Professor of Social Science, HKUST
Research interests: China's economy (in particular
economic growth, regional economic development, Chinese statistics)
Field in economics: development economics, applied macroeconomics and monetary economics
Open letter to the Provost of HKUST (20 Feb. 2014) http://ihome.ust.hk/~socholz/OpenLetter.html
The Hong Kong Model of Academia (March 2008) http://ihome.ust.hk/~socholz/HKUST-SOSC/HK-university-model-March08.pdf
Publications (journals, books)
Abstracts of publications (through 2010)
“Physical Capital Estimates for China’s Provinces, 1952-2015 and Beyond.” With SUN Yue. 3 May 2017. In press, China Economic Review (Paper and Dataset/Results),
“The Changing Patterns of Investment in the PRC Economy.” 16 March 2017. (Here)
Also in variation as “The Role of Investment in Structural Change in the PRC,” ADB Consultant’s Report, 7 March 2017. (Here)
“Wage and Price Dynamics in China.” With Aaron Mehrotra. The World Economy 39, no. 8 (Aug. 2016): 1109-27. Also: “Wage and Price Dynamics in a Large Emerging Economy: the Case of China.” Stanford University, SCID Working Paper 474, 13 May 2013 (http://scid.stanford.edu/publicationsprofile/2575); Bank for International Settlements Working Papers No. 409, April 2013 (http://www.bis.org/publ/work409.htm); and The Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2014, 20 January 2014 (http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Pages/dp0314.aspx).
“The Quality of China’s GDP Statistics.” China Economic Review 30 (September 2014): 309-38. Also Stanford University, SCID Working Paper 487, 2 December 2013 (http://scid.stanford.edu/publicationsprofile/2681), or published version here. Appendices.
“Understanding Money Demand in the Transition from a Centrally Planned to a Market Economy.” With Anne-Laure Delatte and Julien Fouquau. Post-Communist Economies 26, no. 3 (September 2014): 376-400. Earlier version of October 2011 titled “Explaining Money Demand in China During the Transition from a Centrally Planned to a Market-based Monetary System” as Bank of Finland BOFIT Discussion Paper 27 (2011). At: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1949078.
“Chinese Statistics: Classification Systems and Data Sources.” Eurasian Geography and Economics 54, no. 5/6 (2013): 532-71. Earlier version: Stanford University, SCID Working Paper 471, 8 January 2013 (http://scid.stanford.edu/publicationsprofile/2557). Appendices (sectoral classification systems, representativeness of directly reporting industrial enterprises, data sources)
“Monthly Industrial Output in China 1980-2012.” China Economic Review 28 (March 2014): 1-16. Earlier version: Stanford University, SCID Working Paper 472, (revised version of) 12 September 2013 (http://scid.stanford.edu/publicationsprofile/2559).
"The Unbalanced Growth Hypothesis and the Role of the State: the Case of China's State-owned Enterprises." Journal of Development Economics 96, no. 2 (Nov. 2011): 220-38.
"No Razor's Edge: Reexamining Alwyn Young's Evidence for Increasing Inter-Provincial Trade Barriers in China." The Review of Economics and Statistics 91, no. 3 (Aug. 2009): 599-616.
"China's Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today about China's Economic Growth Tomorrow." 26 Dec. 2006 (not final). (Appendices.) World Development 36, no. 10 (Oct. 2008): 1665-1691. Appendices of final version.
"China's 2004 Economic Census and 2006 Benchmark Revision of GDP Statistics: More Questions Than Answers." The China Quarterly, no. 193 (March 2008): 150-63. Published version. Copyright holder: The China Quarterly / School of Oriental and African Studies.
"Spatial Price Differences in China: Estimates and Implications." With Loren Brandt. Economic Development and Cultural Change 55, no. 1 (Oct. 2006): 43-86.
"New Capital Estimates for China." China
Economic Review 17, no. 2 (2006): 142-85. Paper.
Also in the same issue: "Response to Gregory C. Chow's 'New Capital Estimates for China: Comments'," pp. 193-97.
"China's Reform Period Economic Growth: How Reliable Are Angus Maddison's Estimates." Review of Income and Wealth 52, no. 1 (March 2006): 85-119. Paper. Appendices. My response to Maddison's reply to my paper, published as: "China’s Reform Period Economic Growth: How Reliable Are Angus Maddison’s Estimates? Response to Angus Maddison’s Reply." Review of Income and Wealth 52, no. 3 (Sept. 2006): 471-5.
"Deconstructing China's GDP Statistics." China Economic Review 15, no. 2 (2004): 164-202. Paper.
"China's Statistical System in Transition: Challenges, Data Problems, and Institutional Innovations." Review of Income and Wealth 50, no. 3 (Sept. 2004): 381-409. Paper.
China's State-owned Enterprises between
Profitability and Bankruptcy. World
Scientific, 2003. (monograph)
Update on the definition of "state-owned and state-controlled enterprises." Abstract and table of contents
"'Fast, Clear and Accurate:' How Reliable Are Chinese Output and Economic Growth Statistics?" The China Quarterly, no. 173 (March 2003): 122-63. Paper.
"Long Live China's State-owned Enterprises: Deflating the Myth of Poor Financial Performance." Journal of Asian Economics 13, no. 4 (July/August 2002): 493-529. Paper.
"Institutional Constraints on the Quality of Statistics in a Developing and Transitional Economy: the Case of China." China Information 16, no 1 (2002): 25-67. Paper
"The 1997-1998 Break in Industrial Statistics: Facts and Appraisal." With Yi-min Lin. Contribution to symposium on China's statistics. China Economic Review 12, no. 4 (2001): 303-16. Paper.
"Pitfalls of China's Industrial Statistics: Inconsistencies and Specification Problems." With Yi-min Lin. The China Review 1, no. 1 (Fall 2001): 29-71. Paper.
"Identifying the Patterns of Profitability Across Chinese State-owned Enterprises: Which Industrial State-owned Enterprises in China Are Profitable?" Journal of Asian Business 17, no. 2 (2001): 33-62. Paper.
"The Impact of the Liability-Asset Ratio on Profitability in China's Industrial State-owned Enterprises." China Economic Review 13, no. 1 (2002): 1-26. Paper.
"The Impact of Competition and Labor Remuneration on Profitability in China's Industrial State-owned Enterprises." Journal of Contemporary China 11, no. 32 (Aug. 2002): 515-38. Paper.
"Why Do Aggregate Production Functions Work? Fisher's simulations, Shaik's Identity and Some New Results." With Jesus Felipe. International Review of Applied Economics 15, no. 3 (July 2001): 261-85. Paper.
"Banking and Enterprise Reform in the People's Republic of China after the Asian Financial Crisis: An Appraisal." With Tian Zhu. Asian Development Review 18, no. 1 (2001): 73-93. Paper.
"China's Monetary Reform: The Counterrevolution from the Countryside." Journal of Contemporary China 10, no. 27 (2001): 189-217. Paper.
"The Changing Role of Money in China and Its Implications." Comparative Economic Studies 42, no. 3 (Fall 2000): 77-100. Paper.
"Contractionary Investment Policies in China 1988/89: Accounting for the Implementation Difficulties and Successes." The China Quarterly, no. 160 (Dec. 1999): 881-918. Paper.
The Role of Central Banking in China's Economic Reforms. Cornell East Asia Series, No. 59. Ithaca: Cornell University East Asia Program, 1992. (monograph)
“Is Excessive Domestic Investment Hurting China?” MERICS China Monitor No. 29, 18 November 2015. (Link)
“China’s GDP Data Are Better Than You Think.” Bloomberg Brief: Building China’s Data System, September 2014, p. 4. At: http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/content/uploads/sites/2/2014/09/EN-China_Data_System-WEB.pdf.
“Can We Trust the Numbers?” China Economic Quarterly 18, no. 1 (March 2014): 43-50.
“Here Be Dragons? China’s Economic Data May Not Be All Bad.” The Conversation, 3 March 2014 (https://theconversation.com/here-be-dragons-chinas-economic-data-may-not-be-all-bad-23047).
"Statistics." Entry in Encyclopedia of Modern China, Charles Scribner's Sons / Gale Group, forthcoming.
"More Number Games." China Economic Quarterly 10, no. 3 (third quarter, 2006): 40-44.
"Why China's Growth is Sustainable." Far Eastern Economic Review 169, no. 3 (April 2006): 41-6.
"Why China's New GDP Data Matters." Far Eastern Economic Review 169, no. 1 (Jan./Feb. 2006): 54-7.
"The Institutional Arrangements for the Production of Statistics." OECD---China Governance Project. OECD Statistics working paper, STD/DOC (2005) 1, 19 Jan. 2005.
"China's Economic Growth Statistics: Trustworthy in the Long Run, Less So in the Short Run." Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University, APARC Dispatch October 2004. For full text click here.
Academic employment and qualifications
Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, Harvard University (on sabbatical leave)
Visiting Professor, Stanford Center for International Development, Stanford University
Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, University of Southern California
Professor, Social Science Division, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology (HKUST)
Visiting Research Scholar, Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies, and Visiting Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University
Visiting Scholar, Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University (on sabbatical leave)
Associate Professor, Social Science Division, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology (HKUST)
Visiting Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Cornell University
Assistant Professor, Social Science Division, HKUST
Ph.D., Department of Economics, Cornell University
Earlier working papers and other research
"How can a subset of industry produce more output than all of industry?" 2pp. note on 2006 and 2007 industrial value added. 27 Nov. 08
"The Quantity and Quality of Labor in China 1978-2000-2025." (Manuscript constructing labor data) May 2005. 81pp.
"Financing Constraints and Investment in China's Township and Village Enterprises." December 1999.
"China's Bad Loan Problem." April 1999.
SOSC 1440 Introduction to Economics (Spring 2018)
SOSC 4260 China’s Economic Transformation (Spring 2018)
Earlier (course outlines on the HKUST teaching server are apparently no longer accessible)
SOSC 181 Introduction to China's
SOSC 260 China's Economy
SOSC 301B Quantitative Methods in the Social
SOSC 340 International Monetary and Financial Economics
SOSC 359 Money and Banking in
Principles of Economics, Intermediate Microeconomics, Introductory Macroeconomics, Intermediate Macroeconomics (standard textbook courses)
SOSC 511 Social Science Research
SOSC 515 China's Economic Growth [course outline of spring 1998]
SOSC 534 Quantitative Analysis in the Social Sciences [course outline of spring 2007]
The Chinese Economy [syllabus
of spring 2008, as taught in the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton
SOSC 543 The Chinese Economy [fall 2008]
SOSC 543 / 323 The Chinese Economy [fall 2009]
USC Econ 346 Economics of Transition and Development: China
SOSC 544 Economics of Development [course outline of spring 2010]
How to get to HKUST http://ihome.ust.hk/~socholz/directions.html (Minibus 11 from Choi Hong to HKUST now stops at the back gate of HKUST (2014).)
University homepage http://www.ust.hk
Hong Kong model of academia, HKUST matters http://ihome.ust.hk/~socholz/HKUST-SOSC.html
Social Science Division homepage http://www.ust.hk/~websosc/
Social Science Division seminar homepage http://www.ust.hk/~websosc/seminar/seminet.htm
My mailing address: Carsten Holz, SOSC, HKUST, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong. [HK doesn't have zip codes.]
Tel. in Hong Kong (+852): 2358-7835 (office); dept. general office 2358-7811.
Last (partial) update: 28 July 2018 (and I tend to forget to update this date when I update the page)